Abstract
The persistent gap between local red meat production and domestic needs in Egypt threatens national food security, with the real self-sufficiency rate declining sharply from 71.2% in 2006 to 36.5% in 2023. This study evaluates the economic potential of cattle fattening farms to bridge this gap. Using econometric time-series analysis (ARCH models) and a field survey in Alexandria Governorate, we analyzed factors influencing production and efficiency. Key findings indicate that red meat supply is significantly influenced by long-term structural economic factors. A 10% increase in available calves and alfalfa production was associated with a 4.14% and 1.9% increase in production, respectively (p < 0.01). Forecasting models predict that raising the operational efficiency of specialized farms from its current average of 57% to a target of 80% could boost total production to approximately 960,065 tons by 2027. The field analysis identified the two-cycle (six-month) fattening system as the most economically efficient (Revenue-to-Cost Ratio: 1.40). This study provides a data-driven framework for policymakers to enhance domestic production through targeted support for farm efficiency and de-risking the critical calf-rearing phase.
Keywords
References
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